The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant turbulence. Bitcoin, the leading digital asset, recently saw a sharp decline. This downturn has left many investors questioning the immediate future of the market. Experts are now debating the causes and potential consequences of this latest Bitcoin price dip. Is this a healthy correction, or does it signal a deeper issue? This article explores the key factors influencing Bitcoin’s trajectory this week.
Understanding the Recent Bitcoin Price Dip
Bitcoin (BTC) began a new week with a fresh sell-off. Data from StockPil Markets Pro and TradingView shows a swift decline. Just days after reaching its latest all-time high above $124,500, the BTC/USD pair shed 2% in hours. This brought its total drawdown from the peak to over $10,000. This sharp drop has led many to draw comparisons with the market top observed in 2021.
Traders quickly reacted to the current market structure. Many predicted new local lows in the coming days. Crypto Tony, a well-known trader, shared his analysis. He noted a rising wedge pattern playing out as expected. This scenario had been anticipated for several days. Such patterns often precede a downward movement.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: StockPil/TradingView
Trading platform Material Indicators also weighed in. They dismissed the possibility of Bitcoin holding its 21-day simple moving average (SMA). This is a crucial technical indicator for many traders. Material Indicators flagged a “pretty solid” down signal on one of their proprietary tools. They stated that this development “drastically reduces the probability of a $BTC breakout this week.” This indicates a strong bearish sentiment among some analysts.
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Material Indicators/X
Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades identified key levels for the Bitcoin price. He suggested watching $112,000 as a downside target. Conversely, a break of $120,000 could signal a reversal. He noted that early-week moves often retrace. However, the performance of the US market today would be crucial. These levels provide important reference points for investors navigating the current volatility.
Some market participants expressed deeper concerns. Fellow trader Roman, who has long warned of market weakness, highlighted the low volume supporting recent highs. “Now $BTC is down $10,000 from prior highs,” he observed. “The lack of volume has been extremely concerning for the past few months.” Roman believes this low volume suggests distribution, not accumulation. He drew parallels to the 2021 market behavior. That period concluded with a blow-off top at $69,000, initiating a prolonged bear market. This historical context raises red flags for some long-term observers of the Bitcoin price.
BTC/USD one-day chart with volume data. Source: StockPil/TradingView
Unpacking Market Manipulation and Strategic Accumulation
While often viewed negatively, market manipulation might be playing a role in the recent Bitcoin price movements. Popular trader CrypNuevo suggested that the snap BTC price dip was not organic. He argued that undue sell-side pressure does not reflect true demand. His analysis points to a coordinated effort rather than natural market forces.
CrypNuevo’s latest X thread provided a detailed explanation. He summarized the situation: “Bitcoin made a new ATH, but then a manipulated organized move dumped price causing $1B in liquidations in 24h. At the same time that retail was getting stopped out & liquidated… a hand bought all those liquidations.” This suggests a strategic play by a large entity.
Source: CryptNuevo/X
CrypNuevo believes a large-volume buyer on crypto exchange HTX is accumulating. This entity is likely attempting to acquire Bitcoin at lower levels. Their goal is to buy before the uptrend resumes. He elaborated: “It’s probable that they ‘stopped the train’ to get a few more buys before it goes again.” This implies a deliberate pause in the upward momentum. Such actions allow large players to fill their orders without significantly moving the market against themselves. This could mean a period of consolidation or choppy price action. After this phase, CrypNuevo anticipates a reclaim of the $120,000 level. “Once price can sustain above $120k, we should see a good move up,” he concluded. This perspective offers a potentially bullish outlook despite the recent dip in Bitcoin price.
Exchange order-book data from CoinGlass supports this theory. The data shows how the price sliced through bid liquidity. This indicates that buying interest was quickly absorbed. The $114,000 area emerged as a significant zone of interest at the time of writing. This area likely saw substantial buying activity from the alleged large entity. Such patterns are common in markets where large players seek to optimize their entry points. The aim is to maximize their holdings before a sustained rally.
BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass
Macroeconomic Headwinds: Jackson Hole and Beyond
This week, the Federal Reserve’s annual policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is a major event. It is on every trader’s calendar. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak on Friday. His speech promises to be a critical moment for market uncertainty. Investors will focus on future monetary policy, especially interest rates. The Fed faces a difficult balancing act. They must address rising inflation while also contending with weakening labor market data. This dilemma makes both raising and lowering rates challenging options.
Trading firm Mosaic Asset highlighted the significance of Powell’s speech. In their regular publication, “The Market Mosaic,” they stated: “Investor attention will be fixated on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, and how the Fed is viewing the balance of risks between recent weak labor market data and rising inflation.” They added that past speeches by Powell have provided crucial insights. These insights often reveal the metrics central bank officials track for policy decisions. Therefore, market participants will scrutinize every word for clues on the Fed’s next moves, which can directly impact the Bitcoin price and broader financial markets.
🇺🇸 UPDATE: Fed Chair Powell is set to speak on Friday, Aug. 22 at 10:00 A.M. ET on economic outlook and framework review. Source: StockPil/X
Analyzing current employment trends, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter issued a stark warning. They suggested a “generational jobs crisis” might be beginning. They observed a significant rise in the youth underemployment rate. It climbed by approximately 5 percentage points over the last two years. This figure is nearly consistent with peaks during the 2001 recession and the early stages of the 2008 Financial Crisis. “This also signals the US labor market could weaken further,” they noted. “Young workers typically feel the impact first when the economy turns.” The job market is deteriorating rapidly, according to their analysis. This economic backdrop adds another layer of complexity to the Fed’s decisions and the overall market outlook.
US youth unemployment data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X
Simultaneously, Chair Powell faces intense pressure from Washington. President Donald Trump, in particular, has repeatedly urged significant rate cuts. Trump has criticized Powell for being “too late” in his actions. Powell’s successor is also expected to be unveiled shortly. These political dynamics add another layer of uncertainty to the economic landscape. Meanwhile, risk-asset volatility could heighten amid ongoing negotiations. These negotiations aim to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Kobeissi described Monday’s upcoming meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as “crucial.” Markets are already “pricing in” a potential peace settlement. Such geopolitical developments can significantly sway investor sentiment and influence the Bitcoin price.
Is the Bitcoin Price Uptrend Nearing its End?
Bitcoin has enjoyed a solid six-week uptrend, despite multiple short-term corrections. However, as week seven begins, popular trader Rekt Capital has issued a warning for bulls. He noted that Bitcoin bull market uptrend phases historically tend to reverse after five to seven weeks. This pattern has been observed in previous cycles. “Historically, Bitcoin Price Discovery Uptrend 1 tends to end between Week 6 & 8 of its uptrend,” he explained. “Whereas in Price Discovery Uptrend 2, Bitcoin tends to end its uptrend between Week 5 & 7.” This analysis suggests that the current uptrend might be approaching its historical limit. “Week 7 of Price Discovery Uptrend 2 begins tomorrow,” he pointed out. This puts the current rally squarely within the historical reversal window. Investors should consider this historical context when evaluating the future Bitcoin price trajectory.
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
An accompanying chart from Rekt Capital illustrates the various up and down phases of the current bull market. These phases are measured from Bitcoin’s 2024 block subsidy halving event. The chart provides a near-term target of just under $160,000. This suggests potential for further upside if the uptrend continues. However, extending the latest uptrend into an eighth week would place it in the top segment of history. This would echo the strong bull market seen in 2017. Bitcoin’s first major correction of 2025 followed the end of its first uptrend. That correction saw a 30% drawdown. It resulted in local lows of just under $75,000. This historical precedent highlights the potential for significant pullbacks, even within a strong bull market. Therefore, while the long-term outlook for Bitcoin price remains positive for many, short-term caution is warranted.
The Curious Case of Coinbase Premium and Bitcoin Price
Despite the recent price drawdown, a popular US demand metric suggests market momentum remains intact. This metric is the Coinbase Premium. It measures the difference in Bitcoin prices between the Coinbase BTC/USD pair and the Binance BTC/USDT pairs. This week, the Coinbase Premium is in positive territory. A positive premium implies that demand from Coinbase investors is creating a price gap. This gap occurs with Binance, which is the largest global exchange. This positive premium is an encouraging sign for the US demand trajectory. It suggests that US-based institutional and retail investors are actively accumulating Bitcoin. This demand could provide a strong underlying support for the Bitcoin price in the long run.
The last time the premium dipped below neutral into the red was on August 12. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) made a fresh all-time high the day after. However, while the price failed to hold that level, the premium has stayed buoyant. This divergence raises questions about the true nature of the current market movements. On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant summarized this observation. In one of their “Quicktake” blog posts on Monday, they stated: “After few days of negative premium, the Coinbase Premium is showing strength again.” They then posed a crucial question: “Is this the start of a new leg?” This indicates that some analysts see the premium as a leading indicator of future upward movement for the Bitcoin price.
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant
Considering this curious divergence between price and the premium, popular trader Cas Abbe described the situation as “strange.” He suggested two main possibilities to his X followers. “Coinbase Bitcoin Premium is at its highest level in a month, and BTC is going down. Now this could mean 2 things,” he wrote. His first theory is that the buyer might be Michael Saylor only. Saylor is the CEO of technology firm MicroStrategy. His company has been adding BTC to its corporate treasury almost weekly throughout 2025. Saylor is known for using “TWAP,” or time-weighted average price, an investment method where large orders are filled in multiple small batches at regular intervals. This helps minimize market slippage. The second theory is that some big entities are accumulating in silence. This could be happening before a significant event. “Maybe someone knows about Russia-Ukraine peace deal,” Abbe speculated. These theories highlight the ongoing speculation surrounding the true drivers of the Bitcoin price in the current market environment.
The current Bitcoin market presents a complex picture. On one hand, a sharp price dip has fueled bearish sentiment and concerns about market manipulation. On the other hand, underlying demand metrics, like the Coinbase Premium, suggest continued accumulation. Macroeconomic events, particularly the Jackson Hole symposium, add another layer of uncertainty. Historically, Bitcoin’s bull market uptrends have shown a tendency to reverse after several weeks. However, the potential for strategic accumulation by large entities could lead to a swift recovery. Investors should remain vigilant and conduct thorough research. The interplay of technical indicators, on-chain data, and global economic developments will ultimately determine the next significant move for the Bitcoin price.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What caused the recent Bitcoin price dip?
The recent Bitcoin price dip involved a swift sell-off, bringing the total drawdown from its peak to over $10,000. Some analysts suggest it was an orchestrated move by a large entity to trigger liquidations and buy Bitcoin at lower levels, rather than an organic market correction.
What is the Jackson Hole symposium, and how does it affect Bitcoin?
The Jackson Hole symposium is an annual meeting of central bankers and economists, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell often delivers significant policy speeches. His statements on interest rates and economic outlook can create market uncertainty and impact risk assets like Bitcoin, as investors react to potential shifts in monetary policy.
What does the Coinbase Premium indicate for Bitcoin price?
The Coinbase Premium measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase (US-centric) and Binance (global). A positive premium suggests higher demand from US investors, which is generally seen as a bullish sign for the Bitcoin price, indicating strong underlying accumulation despite short-term price drops.
Is the current Bitcoin uptrend sustainable?
Historical analysis by traders like Rekt Capital suggests that Bitcoin bull market uptrends typically reverse after 5-7 weeks. As the current uptrend enters its seventh week, some analysts warn that it may be nearing its historical limit, indicating a potential for a significant correction.
What is ‘buying the dip’ in the context of Bitcoin?
‘Buying the dip’ refers to purchasing an asset after its price has fallen, with the expectation that it will soon rebound. In the current Bitcoin context, some analysts believe a large entity intentionally caused the price dip to allow them to accumulate more Bitcoin at discounted prices before the uptrend continues.
