Bitcoin traders face a monumental test as $13.8 billion in monthly options expire on August 29th, creating a decisive moment that could determine whether the cryptocurrency’s bull run has truly ended or merely paused. This massive options expiry represents one of the most significant market events in recent months, putting immense pressure on both bulls and bears to defend their positions.
Bitcoin Options Expiry Creates Massive Market Pressure
The derivatives market reveals concerning imbalances for bullish traders. Currently, $7.44 billion in call options face $6.37 billion in put contracts, creating a 17% advantage for bullish positions. However, most call options sit significantly out-of-the-money above $125,000, while put options cluster heavily around current price levels. This structure gives bears strong incentives to push Bitcoin below $114,000 before expiration.
Critical Price Levels for Bitcoin Options Expiry
Five key price ranges will determine the outcome of this massive options event:
- $105,000-$110,000: Bears gain $2.45 billion advantage
- $110,100-$114,000: Puts favored by $1.5 billion
- $114,100-$116,000: Moderate put advantage of $360 million
- $116,100-$118,000: Calls gain $460 million edge
- $118,100-$120,000: Strong call advantage of $1.1 billion
Bulls must push Bitcoin above $116,000 to achieve meaningful profits, while bears concentrate their efforts below $114,000.
Macroeconomic Factors Influencing Bitcoin Options Expiry
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech adds another layer of complexity to this options expiry. Additionally, concerns about AI-sector spending and tech stock performance create broader market uncertainty. Morgan Stanley’s warnings about limited share buyback capacity among major tech firms further dampen risk appetite across markets.
Deribit Dominance in Bitcoin Options Market
The Deribit exchange controls 85% of the Bitcoin options market, followed by CME at 7% and OKX with 3%. This concentration means Deribit’s pricing mechanisms and liquidity conditions will primarily determine how the $13.8 billion expiry unfolds. Traders watch Deribit’s order books closely for signals about market direction.
Potential Outcomes for Bitcoin After Options Expiry
Market analysts suggest several possible scenarios post-expiry. A successful defense of $114,000 could reignite bullish momentum, while a break below could trigger further declines. The options expiry itself may create volatility regardless of the final price settlement, as large positions get rolled or closed.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time does the Bitcoin options expiry occur?
The Bitcoin options expiry occurs at 8:00 AM UTC on August 29th, when contracts settle based on Bitcoin’s market price.
How does options expiry affect Bitcoin’s price?
Large options expiries can create increased volatility as market makers hedge their positions and traders adjust exposure before settlement.
What percentage of calls are in-the-money currently?
Only 12% of call options sit at $115,000 or below, meaning most bullish contracts remain out-of-the-money at current prices.
Can Federal Reserve policy affect the options outcome?
Yes, Fed Chair Powell’s comments on interest rates could significantly impact risk assets including Bitcoin, potentially altering options profitability.
What happens to options that expire out-of-the-money?
Options expiring out-of-the-money become worthless, resulting in total loss of premium paid by buyers and full profit retention for sellers.
How often do these large options expiries occur?
Monthly options expiries occur regularly, but $13.8 billion represents an unusually large amount that creates heightened market impact.
