Bitcoin investors face a crucial juncture as multiple onchain indicators suggest the cryptocurrency’s remarkable bull run may be approaching its final chapter. The Bitcoin price has entered what analysts describe as a ‘late maturity phase,’ raising urgent questions about how much longer the current cycle can sustain its momentum before potentially significant corrections emerge.
Bitcoin Price Cycle Analysis Points to Impending Top
Market intelligence firm Glassnode provides compelling evidence that the Bitcoin price cycle is nearing completion. Consequently, historical patterns indicate we might be only 2-3 months away from the cycle peak. Specifically, Bitcoin’s phenomenal 700% rally from $15,500 to $124,500 mirrors previous cycle behaviors that preceded major market tops.
Glassnode’s latest analysis reveals: “In both the 2015–2018 and 2018–2022 cycles, the all-time highs were reached roughly 2–3 months beyond where we are in the current cycle.” This timing suggests mid-September to mid-October 2025 could mark the cycle peak if historical patterns hold.
Critical Onchain Metrics Signal Bitcoin Price Vulnerability
The Bitcoin supply in profit metric has remained elevated for 273 days, approaching the 335-day record set during the 2015-2018 cycle. This extended period of profitability typically precedes significant market corrections. Furthermore, long-term holders have been realizing profits at unprecedented levels, creating substantial sell-side pressure.
Key warning signs include:
- 91% of all Bitcoin currently in profit
- Supply in profit above +1 standard deviation for 273+ days
- Record profit-taking by long-term holders
- Rejection at critical $114,000 resistance level
Bitcoin Price Support Levels and Downside Risks
Technical analysis reveals immediate concerns as Bitcoin struggles to reclaim $114,000. Analysts identify $112,000-$110,000 as crucial support territory aligned with the 100-day simple moving average. However, a break below $110,000 could trigger deeper corrections toward the $90,000-$100,000 range.
Market expert Daan Crypto Trades warns: “Anything lower and I think the structure is going to be looking a bit weak.” Meanwhile, Michael van de Poppe suggests any drop below current support levels could present buying opportunities for strategic investors.
Historical Patterns and Current Bitcoin Price Trajectory
The current cycle demonstrates remarkable similarity to previous market tops in terms of duration and profit-taking behavior. Glassnode’s cumulative profit analysis shows long-term holders have realized more profits than in prior cycles, indicating sophisticated investors are gradually exiting positions.
Popular analyst Rekt Capital emphasizes the importance of weekly closes relative to $114,000, noting this level “needs to be convincingly lost for BTC to go lower.” The convergence of these factors suggests the market is in a historically late phase that typically precedes significant trend changes.
FAQs: Bitcoin Price Late Maturity Phase
What defines a ‘late maturity phase’ in Bitcoin cycles?
A late maturity phase occurs when multiple onchain metrics simultaneously indicate extended profitability, elevated selling pressure from long-term holders, and diminishing bullish momentum that historically precedes market tops.
How long do Bitcoin bull markets typically last?
Previous Bitcoin bull markets have lasted approximately 2-3 years from cycle low to cycle high, with the current cycle beginning in November 2022 and potentially peaking in September-October 2025.
What price levels are critical for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory?
The $110,000-$112,000 zone represents immediate support, while a break below $110,000 could trigger moves toward $90,000-$100,000. Reclaiming $114,000 is crucial for bullish continuation.
Are long-term holders selling their Bitcoin?
Yes, Glassnode data shows long-term holders have realized more profit in this cycle than previous cycles, indicating sophisticated investors are taking profits at current levels.
What timeframe are analysts predicting for a potential cycle top?
Most analysts suggest mid-September to mid-October 2025 based on historical cycle timing and current onchain metrics.
Should investors be concerned about a major correction?
While metrics suggest increased caution warranted, corrections are normal in bull markets. Any significant drop could present buying opportunities according to several market analysts.
This analysis contains no investment advice or recommendations. All trading involves risk, and readers should conduct thorough research before making decisions.
